Science, truth and Covid-19
A basic truth about science is that it does not have all the answers. There are many kinds of questions that science cannot answer. It can only tell us about “things” in our natural world that are expected to behave in predictable ways. Viruses and how they spread are among such “things”. Science has certainly learned a great amount about viruses in general ever since 1892 when we first learned of their existence upon discovering that one specific “germ”, unlike other microbes, was so small that it passed through all available filters.
Another truth is that it takes time for science to know about new things. Covid-19 is caused by such a new virus that there is still plenty we do not know about it. Scientists are now working very hard worldwide to study it. Any new virus is different because its properties are different. We can think of properties as characteristics that are unique to the virus, just as height, weight, etc. are properties of people. But when a virus replicates (makes copies of itself), the copies are normally exact copies (As a newly formed virus only has one “parent”, it is expected it will have the exact same properties.) In science, properties can generally be explained with numbers (such as people’s height and weight are given in numbers). It takes researchers time to learn what the numbers are for the properties of a novel virus such as SARS-CoV-2. Properties can change sometimes with viruses. When this happens, it is called a mutation, which is basically a mistake that is made when a virus makes copies of itself. Fortunately, this happens less often with this virus than with other viruses, because we know that it “proofreads” its copies. We therefore expect that the properties will remain the same long enough so that science has time to develop treatments and a vaccine before any major mutation occurs, even while minor mutations are indeed occurring.
Properties would tell us very much about how exactly we could protect ourselves from the virus. The numbers associated with the properties would allow us to predict through models (a simplified description of a complex situation that lends itself to using mathematics) far more accurately how quickly a virus spreads in a population, what hospital capacity would have to be in order to be able to treat patients with the disease and how many people are expected to die. Models worked very poorly at first because science did not have enough data (information in the form of numbers) to create them properly.
To keep advancing, scientists must properly use what is called the scientific method to keep learning the answers to more and more questions. The scientific method basically involves designing experiments to answer questions that scientists pose based on observation. By properly formulating a question and then properly designing an experiment to answer the question, a scientist can get results that can advance science by a notch. This may then lead directly to further cycles of observation, questions, experimentation and answers to the new questions that arise. However, experimental results should be verified (checked) by other scientists. If the same questions keep getting answered in the same way, scientific evidence of certain ideas grows. As this scientific evidence mounts (accumulates), science can tell with ever more certainty that a particular idea is true.
When there is overwhelming scientific evidence of an answer to a specific question, we can use the word “fact” (even if there may always be a chance that this fact might change in at least some minor way in the future). Let us start with what science knows very well about Covid-19 from the fact that it is a virus and from all that science has learned to date about it and viruses in general that can help us protect ourselves.
Practically “scientific facts” (overwhelming scientific evidence):
- This virus spreads by entering a body through the mouth, nose or eyes.
- Fingers can gather viruses by touching others or surfaces others touched.
- The virus can then enter the body from a person touching his/her face
- … or by inhaling droplets from the sneezing, cough or breath of others.
- Properly washing or sanitizing hands will destroy enough of the virus.
- Two meters (6 feet) between people considerably reduces spreading.
- The virus is also spread by infected individuals who do not seem sick.
- Covid-19 is more dangerous than the annual flu.
- Masks and other protective equipment are essential for health care providers.
- Disinfecting surfaces people may touch reduces the spread of this virus.
- Social distancing helps keep hospitals from being overburdened (and thereby causing a greater loss of life) and can buy humanity time for scientific and technological advances (to eventually save far more lives).
There is less scientific evidence of the following:
(We cannot consider any of them to be “facts”.)
- Covid-19 only kills the elderly or those with health conditions.
- Between 100,000 and 240,000 US-Americans are likely to die of Covid-19.
- (As of April 1, according to a model recognized by the US government.)
- Masks are always necessary around other people to protect from Covid-19.
- A Covid-19 vaccine will be developed latest by fall of 2021.
- Certain drugs that exist today and that the public thinks is helpful against Covid-19 is truly effective against Covid-19.)
As evidence has mounted considerably, the CDC now recommends that people wear face masks (in public places inside and when near people outside who do not live with you), but not the kind used in hospitals. The argument is made that it is more important to keep masks for health care settings. Evidence is also mounting that perfectly healthy young people can be killed by this virus.
As of April 1 there were still chances that fewer than 100,000 US-Americans would die of Covid-19, but those chances quickly dwindled. It is now unlikely that fewer than 240,000 will die, yet nothing is 100% certain. Just as in forecasting the weather, science sometimes can only predict by using probabilities, and we’re much better at predicting weather than we are at predicting the spread of a novel virus. The model presented on April 1 indicated that at that time, based on available data and based on our limited understanding of the virus, there was a 95% chance that the number would be in this range. (Depending on the scientific field, 95% is often a probability that scientists use for making such predictions.) Predictive models work better when there is more data, just like weather forecasting is more accurate when there is more data, which is the case today versus decades ago.
Finally, researchers have enough scientific evidence that one drug (remdesivir) can help treat Covid-19 patients. It is not at all a “wonder drug”, but it is a step in the right direction. Hopefully, evidence of effectiveness can mount for other drugs as well! But evidence for the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) (and chloroquine) has not mounted. It now appears that the vast majority of doctors worldwide have lost hope in this drug, but many used it before when nothing much else was available and there was some evidence that it might work. Notwithstanding, experiments (in the form of trials) continued to be performed on it. (The basic idea was, at least in the US, that if a person believes a drug is helpful that is approved for another disease, that person can ask for it to be used “off label”.)
When we apply science, the idea is to reduce the chances of a bad result, based on all the data available to us, but we also need to consider all possible results of our actions. For example, a drug might show some evidence of being effective against Covid-19, but it might also show more evidence of being likely to kill you in other ways. That’s why more drug studies are necessary!
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT: I am not a medical doctor. The purpose of this site is not to give medical advice. My purpose is to educate. Do not self-medicate! Don’t take any new medication outside of a proper health care setting! Seek a medical doctor if you are looking for medical advice.
There’s a lot of misinformation floating around:
If I didn’t mention something above about how we can protect ourselves from the virus, it might mean that scientists are still trying to find sufficient evidence for it or maybe there is simply very little scientific evidence of its being true. Be careful! You can read more about misinformation on the Myths and misinformation page.
For news about science and misinformation, visit the Science and misinformation page on this site.
©2020 Dr. Michael Herrera