SciAm: Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread (June 2020 issue)
STAT: Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say (April 17, 2020)
AIM: Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic (April 14, 2020)
Science: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period (April 14, 2020)
- Probability of “recurrent wintertime outbreaks”.
- To avoid exceeding critical care capacities, “prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022”.
- Expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic “would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity”.
- “Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity”.
- “Surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”
JAMA: Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19 (March 26, 2020)
- Explanation from an MIT study on how both “small” and “large” droplets could go farther through the air than previously thought by traveling within a puff of warm, most air.
- Note, however, that the detection of genetic material at a distance of up to 27 feet (8 m) does not necessarily mean that the virus is infectious at that distance.